The supposedly ‘post-racial’ president of the United States has successfully united most White people like never before in recent history. This is bad news if you are a Democrat because that united White front is not one of support, but rather of opposition. While Whites are in the process of being demographically eclipsed, for the next few years they will continue to constitute the majority of the electorate. Unfortunately for Barack Obama, the election is this November rather than in 2028. John Ellis has the story for Real Clear Politics:
In 2008, 43 percent of white voters cast their presidential ballots for Sen. Barack Obama. That was more than he needed to win. Today, according to the most recent FOX News poll, 35 percent of white voters say that they support President Obama’s re-election. This is what makes the 2012 presidential election too close to call.
The overriding fear of Team Obama is that the president’s support among white voters will collapse. The math is simple. If Romney gets 65 percent of the white vote (which will likely comprise — at least — 72 percent of the electorate) then he gets 48 percent of the total vote. From there, Romney need only get 20 percent of all non-white voters to win by a comfortable margin.
Of course, getting even as little as 20% of the non-White vote is easier said than done if you are a Republican. Obama got 96% of the Black vote in 2008 and is sure to get near unanimous support from that racial group this time around as well. Obama also got 67% of the Hispanic vote in 2008. And he got 78% of the Jewish vote and 63% of the Asian vote. Non-Whites overwhelmingly support Obama.
The 2008 presidential election featured Mr. Obama at the height of his political appeal. Black turnout, youth turnout, liberal turnout surged accordingly, padding his victory margin by as much as two full percentage points. His margin was further padded by the lethargy of conservative voters, who were lukewarm to Sen. John McCain.
This time around, the enthusiasm for President Obama among younger voters, black voters and liberal voters has dimmed appreciably. Conservative voters, despite their misgivings about Gov. Romney, are no longer lethargic. They’re fired up and ready to go. Wisconsin added fuel to their fire.
So, despite most of what you have read about demographics being political destiny, the 2012 presidential election boils down to the pursuit of those white voters who helped then-Sen. Obama hit the 43 percent mark in 2008, but who are now disappointed by the president’s performance in office.
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